Children: Which is more dangerous, Covid or the Vaccine?

I’m not a statitician — and my college education did not require a statistics class. I always had a knack with math, and this should be easy to follow.

In the Stage 3 Clinical Trial for the Pfizer vaccine in children ages 12-15 there were originally 1,127 participants. One participant, a 12 year old girl, became paralyzed from the waist down as a result of the vaccine. That means, in kids ages 12-15, according to that study, that they have a 0.089% chance of having a life-altering adverse reaction to the Pfizer vaccine. (1/1127 *100=0.0887311etc.%) This means that we can expect out of one million kids ages 12-15 vaccinated that 887 will have a life-altering adverse reaction.

Now, let’s look at Covid and kids.

The only “life-altering” outcomes kids may face from Covid are: death, long-covid, and MIS-C. MIS-C is completely treatable in a hospital setting as long as it is caught early and treated. Yes, parents should keep an eye on their kids for the signs of MIS-C, but as long as it is caught early, it is not life-altering. Long-covid may be life-altering. We are still learning how to treat long-covid. The exhaustion and pain from long-covid may be life-altering — but, still, not quite on the scale of becoming a paraplegic. Before another year passes, we may have a cure for long-covid — there are promising treatments currently in clinical trials. Death, of course, is life-altering and permanent. So let’s examine that possible outcome from Covid infection.

This is taken from on 8/22/2021:

There have been 3,943,407 reported cases of COVID in in children, with 300 deaths (ages 0-17, as of 5/26). Because not all cases are reported, the CDC estimates the case fatality rate in children age 0-17 is 1 in 50,000.

Now…like I said, I am not a statistics whiz. But I understand basic math. I don’t know how the CDC got “1 in 50,000” = 0.002% from those figures. When I do the math (300/3,943,407*100=0.0076076 etc.%) I get 0.0076%.

Here it goes:

According to CDC raw numbers for kids 0-17
0.0076% will die from Covid, or 76 out of one million

According to CDC estimated case fatality rate for kids 0-17
0.002% will die from Covid, or 20 out of one million

According to Pfizer clinical trial data for kids age 12-15
0.089% will have a life-altering adverse vaccine reaction, 887 out of one million

Therefore, the vaccine is more dangerous than the disease.

Now, I full-well understand that the CDC’s data on Covid outcomes for kids ages 0-17, based on nearly 4 million cases is going to be magnitudes of scale more accurate than a study of only 1,127 kids. However, the reason why we start with small numbers in clinical trials is so that if there are any common adverse reactions that we can study them, fully understand them, determine the mechanism that caused them, and avoid the problem moving forward. It may be that the 12 year old girl in the study had some sort of underlying medical issue that predisposed her to this outcome. If that is the case, we need to know what it is and screen for it so that no one else has to deal with this sort of life-altering adverse vaccine reaction.

Instead of halting the Stage 3 Clinical trial for the Pfizer vaccine in 12-15 year olds, studying this adverse outcome and fully understanding what went wrong before moving forward, this vaccine was given Emergency Use Authorization for that age group. As far as I know, we do not know why or how the vaccine caused her to become paralyzed. In addition, I am aware that there is a clear risk for young people, including 12-15 year olds, espeicially males, of having myocarditis and/or pericarditis follow vaccination — these conditions also may be life-altering and/or life-shortening. We are not pre-screening for anything before receipt of this vaccine by kids ages 12-15. This is lunatic.

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